Security forces thwart infiltration attempt on Afghan border; Pakistan general elections enters its third phase
In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #36
PML-N leader criticizes rivals
On 1 January, Dawn reported that during a workers’ convention in Lahore, a seasoned PML-N leader Khawaja Saad Rafique, criticized the PPP’s governance in Sindh and the PTI’s reliance on social media. Rafique questioned both parties’ track records and announced the PML-N’s willingness to form a coalition government even if it attained a majority in the upcoming elections. He denounced the PPP’s fifteen years in power in Karachi and warned that Lahore would meet a similar fate if PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari won the elections. Rafique emphasized the PML-N’s contributions to Punjab and charged the PPP for inadequately replicating PML-N initiatives. He also questioned the PTI’s successes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during its nine-year administration, emphasizing the significance of tangible results above social media influence in elections. (Amjad Mahmood, “PML-N leader targets PPP’s rule in Sindh, PTI’s social media reliance,” Dawn, 1 January 2024)
PTI to appeal rejection of nomination papers for 2024 elections
On 1 January, Dawn reported that the PTI has announced its decision to appeal the rejection of nomination papers for the 2024 general elections, including that of party founder Imran Khan. PTI’s Central Information Secretary Raoof Hasan, declared that all rejected papers would be first challenged in election tribunals before considering other possibilities. PTI decided to contest the rulings after the Pakistani Election Commission rejected the applications of many PTI candidates. According to the Central Punjab nomination papers data, 281 candidates submitted their papers for 44 NA constituencies out of which 95 nomination papers were rejected and 186 candidates’ nomination papers were accepted. Barrister Gohar Khan and Barrister Umair Khan Niazi are also scheduled to meet with Imran Khan in prison to receive approval for candidate selection and award of tickets. PTI has also developed a UK-based ‘WhatsApp’ account to gather pictorial and videographic evidence of pre-poll violations or rigging. (Mansoor Malik & Ikram Junaidi, “PTI to challenge rejection of nomination papers today,” Dawn, 1 January 2024)
The Election Commission is under fire for alleged bias in PTI candidate rejections
On 1 January, an editorial in Dawn reported that concerns about the impending general elections in Pakistan have grown as the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) rejected during scrutiny a large number of nomination papers filed by PTI candidates. Important PTI stalwarts, such as Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Pervaiz Elahi, were disqualified by the ECP, yet former PDM members who turned against Imran Khan when his fortunes declined, were declared eligible. The move has been criticized as biased and vengeful, undermining the election watchdog’s neutrality. The editorial emphasizes the importance of maintaining democratic processes and urges appellate tribunals to make merit-based decisions throughout the appeal period, which extends until 10 January. It further argues that punishing political parties is not the job of the unelected. The editorial warns that any perception of pre-poll tampering would damage the credibility of the elections. (“Knockout Punch?,” Dawn, 1 January 2024)
Election unknowns exceed the knowns
On 1 January, as stated by Dawn while the election date is nearing, there are more unknown factors than known factors to assume the election play. It said the first unknown is Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) party’s contesting with the Election Commission of Pakistan’s (ECP) decision to deprive the PTI symbol. Here, keeping apart the legal outcomes, the question that persists is whether the notion that PTIs being prosecuted will create a sympathy wave among the voters or keep them off the ballot. As mentioned, the second could be the personal appeal of leaders frequently taking a backseat to constituency politics entwined with networks of traditional allegiances. The third, according to it is, the rising unbalanced equation between the urban and rural composition. It says, that earlier rural constituencies were shown the traditional favoritism. The expanding urbanization makes it harder to predict. The fourth is the new voters and the belief in their no-party preference. Since 2018, over 23.5 million voters have been added to the electoral list. ECP says youth composition bulged, thus Dawn stated they can be the game changer. Anyway, youths are widely seen turned out from the polling. The last two elections noted their participation was only a third compared to the average overall turnout of 52 per cent. The last unknown mentioned was the expectation of Punjab voters’ response to the new Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP). The ‘known’ factor could be the parties addressing the major economic crisis issue. (Maleeha Lodhi, “Election unknowns,” Dawn, 1 January 2024)
Pakistan’s old problems in a new year
On 1 January, an editorial in The News International looked at the controversies and problems surrounding the upcoming general elections scheduled for 8 February 2024. The editorial points out some key issues that might affect the electoral process- rejection of a large number of nomination papers filed by the candidates of PTI and ECP’s decision to challenge the PHC’s decision to reinstate PTI’s ‘bat’ symbol resulting in a tussle between the former and the judiciary- all of which can render the process uncertain. It is also unclear if the elections will be fair and representative in light of a systematic effort to disenfranchise the PTI. The editorial also points out the lack of election campaigning and activity which raises questions like: “If the self-styled messiahs of our country are this disinterested in winning the people’s mandate, a very apt question would be: does the people’s will even matter? (“New year, old baggage,” The News International, 1 January 2024)
Pakistan general elections enters its third phase
On 31 December, the third phase of Pakistan’s upcoming general elections began with the submission of appeals against the decision of the Returning Officers (ROs) to approve or reject the applicants’ nomination papers under section 63. Under Section 63, “An Appellate Tribunal shall summarily decide an appeal filed under sub-section (1) within such time as may be notified by the Commission and any order passed on the appeal shall be final. (3) If the Appellate Tribunal is not able to decide the appeal within the time fixed by the Commission under sub-section (2), the appeal shall abate and the decision of the Returning Officer shall be final.” The last date to file the appeals is 3 January. By 10 January, appellate tribunals will decide on the appeals and announce the revised and final list of candidates on 11 January. On 13 January, it will allot the electoral symbols. (“Third phase of election process gets under way,” The News International, 1 January 2024)
SECURITY
Security forces conduct an intelligence-based operation in Awaran district
On 30 December, the security forces of Pakistan conducted an intelligence-based operation in the Mashkey area of the Awaran district. They conducted the operation based on a tip-off regarding the presence of terrorists in the area. An intense gun battle took place between the terrorists and the security forces in which five terrorists were killed. A cache of arms, ammunition, and explosives was also recovered from the hideout. The Inter-Services Public Relations, the military’s media, and the public relations wing confirmed the incident and stated that a sanitization operation was being carried out to eliminate any terrorists in the area. ISPR also stated that “Security forces of Pakistan, in step with the nation, remain determined to thwart attempts of sabotaging peace, stability and progress of Balochistan.”(“Five terrorists killed in Awaran operation: ISPR,” Dawn, 1 January 2024)
Security forces thwart infiltration attempt on Afghan border
On 31 December, militants from inside Afghanistan opened fire on a Pakistani border post in North Waziristan which led to the death of a soldier of the army. On the same day, three militants were killed while they were trying to infiltrate the Pakistan-Afghan border in the Bajaur district. The presence of the militants was detected in the district’s Batwar area and thus action was taken. Weapons, ammunition and explosives were also recovered from their hideout. Separately on the night between 30 and 31 December, militants from inside the Afghan border opened fire on a Pakistani border post in Spinwam area of North Waziristan District. The Inter-Services Public Relations, the military’s media and public relations wing reported that a befitting response was given to this attack which led to a considerable loss on the side of the militants.(Umer Farooq, “Infiltration bid foiled after 3 militants killed in Bajaur,” Dawn, 1 January 2024)
ECONOMY
Prices of petrol and diesel to remain unchanged until mid-January
On 1 January, Dawn reported that the interim government has decided to maintain the same pricing for gasoline and high-speed diesel (HSD) for the first fifteen days of the month. The finance ministry released a statement informing that till mid-January, the price of gasoline will stay at PKR 267.34 and the price of HSD at PKR 276.21. According to the ministry, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority's (Ogra) recommendation led to the government keeping the rates unchanged. According to the most recent assessment, the price of petrol and diesel grew by almost PKR 50 per litre during the year, amounting to PKR 214.8 and PKR 227.8 per litre respectively on 1 January. This calculation made by Ogra rested mostly on a marginal rise in Brent crude prices and a marginal decline in the Arab Gulf basket rates because of the increase in threats to shipping arising as a result of the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict. (Kalbe Ali, “Petrol, diesel prices left unchanged for next fortnight,” Dawn, 1 January 2024)
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“Reflecting on 2023 in Pakistan - a year marked by economic uncertainties and volatile politics. The lingering question of timely general elections finally answered at year-end, thanks to a decisive move by the Supreme Court.”
- Fayaz Ali
"Exploring the dynamic political landscape in Pakistan—a nation with a rich history of democracy and diverse political perspectives. From elections to governance, the political process here reflects the voices and aspirations of a vibrant and engaged citizenry”
- Dr. Aamir Abbas
“Positive measures by the federal government and the military leadership have stabilized the economy: loan approval from the IMF, an increase in the stock exchange, a reduction in the prices of petroleum products, and an increase in foreign exchange reserves.”
- Ahmed Wazir
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Kamran Yousaf , ‘2024: major challenges’
The Express Tribune, 1 January 2024
“The year 2023 was tumultuous for Pakistan, to say the least. The country remained in the grip of multiple challenges. It was on the verge of default but managed to survive thanks to China and other friends. There was no semblance of political stability. Elections were supposed to take place in November 2023 but had to be postponed on the pretext of redrawing the constituencies based on the new census. While the country had to deal with economic and political crises, there was a resurgence of terrorism too. The number of attacks has gone up since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. The highlight of 2023 in terms of foreign policy was the rapid deterioration in the bilateral ties with Afghanistan. At the heart of the problem was the issue of banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Pakistan says operates from the neighboring country with impunity. So what holds for Pakistan in 2024 against this backdrop? There are three major challenges confronting this nation of 240 million. Since this is an election year, the major focus would be on who would form the next government. Although there are many uncertainties, indications are that the elections will take place on February 8. The reason why Pakistan has to conduct this democratic exercise is that any further delay in election would certainly have grave implications for the country. Given the precarious economic situation, it is certain Pakistan needs another IMF programme. The international players are keen Pakistan must go for polls.”
Editorial, ‘Terrorism, tourism and the tumult that was 2023 — Prism’s year in review’
Dawn, 1 January 2024
“The year 2023 has not been kind to the vast majority of people. Inflation wreaked havoc on the world economy, rising global temperatures brought about even more destruction and if that weren’t enough, new frontiers opened up for humans to kill each other. That is not to say that good things didn’t happen amid all the darkness, there were glimmers of hope, shining through random acts of kindness by heroes who don’t wear capes. At the local level, the year started with a staring contest between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the finance czar, Ishaq Dar that set the tone for one of the highest inflationary spirals in the country’s history. Over the next few months, we saw a judiciary in turmoil, a polity so polarised, it invented new ways to snuff out the opposition and a state that made every excuse in the playbook to deny people the power of the ballot and often, their basic civil rights. Here at Prism, we tried our best to make sense of it all to provide you with in-depth analysis of events that directly or indirectly impacted you. We tried to do so objectively and included as many credible voices as possible. We asked economists to explain why consumer goods were going beyond the common man’s reach, asked lawyers why the Supreme Court was embroiled in controversy, security experts to explain the resurgence of terrorism in Pakistan and human rights activists to explain how Israel could get away with murdering thousands of children.”
Zalmay Azad, Why Is Maulana Retreating From The Elections?
The Friday Times, 1 January 2024
“In recent days, JUI-F chief Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, has made headlines by advocating for a delay in the upcoming elections. While he cites bad weather and security concerns as the primary reasons behind his proposal, some political analysts argue that there may be ulterior motives at play. Maulana Fazal has publicly voiced his concerns over the prevailing bad weather conditions and the security situation in certain regions of Pakistan. He contends that conducting elections under such circumstances could jeopardize the safety of voters and hinder the democratic process. Despite the seemingly noble reasons provided by Maulana Fazal, some political observers remain skeptical of his motives. One key factor contributing to this skepticism is the apparent decline in Maulana Fazal's political popularity. As elections draw near, it is not uncommon for political figures to reassess their strategies, especially when faced with diminishing public support.”
Sammi Deen Baloch, ‘From Balochistan to Islamabad: Why I have been marching since I was 12’
Dawn, 1 January 2024
“If we could forget our loved ones, we would not even protest. However, moving forward is difficult, especially when you don't even know if they are alive or not. Over the last 14 years, I have travelled to Islamabad many times, holding a framed picture of my father, Dr Deen Mohammed Baloch, and screaming my heart out, demanding to know his whereabouts. Each time I have come to Islamabad, it is with the hope that one day, the authorities will listen to me and give me back my father. Or at the very least, give me some answers as to where he disappeared. You see, my father was abducted from Ornach hospital in Khuzdar, Balochistan, on June 28, 2009. I was a little girl of hardly 10 years old. Two years after his abduction, in April 2011, I participated in a train march along with seven other families, followed by another train march in 2013.”
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“Political agendas must shift towards practical solutions”
- An opinion in Dawn, New year, old vows
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